Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Stock Analysis
Verdict: HOLD
Record product exports and consistent earnings beats face a valuation ceiling as the stock targets trade ~12% above analyst consensus.
Investment score: 64/100
Analysis as of
Is Valero Energy Corp stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
The AI model rates VLO as a HOLD. While operational execution is elite—evidenced by massive earnings surprises—the current risk/reward is balanced following a 90-day surge that leaves the stock trading at a rare premium to its peer group median and its own historical analyst targets.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 55/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 75/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 60/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 85/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 40/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 45/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 70/100 (weight 15%)
Valero Energy Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for VLO
- Dominant FCF Generation
What speaks against VLO
- Cyclical Margin Compression
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 17.1x | 0.6x | 8.5x | 7.2% | 3.3% | 8.3% |
| MPC | 15.8x | 0.5x | 8.5x | 8.8% | 3.4% | 7.9% |
| PSX | 17.0x | 0.5x | 8.0x | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| SUN | 11.0x | 0.3x | 4.1x | 10.4% | 2.8% | 8.7% |
| DINO | 10.0x | 0.4x | 5.3x | 11.0% | 4.5% | 9.5% |
| PBF | 10.4x | 0.2x | 7.7x | 1.1% | 1.5% | -14.8% |
| Peer median | 11.0x | 0.4x | 7.7x | 8.8% | 3.0% | 7.9% |
Frequently asked questions about Valero Energy Corp (VLO)
Is VLO stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Valero Energy Corp as HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. The AI model rates VLO as a HOLD. While operational execution is elite—evidenced by massive earnings surprises—the current risk/reward is balanced following a 90-day surge that leaves the stock trading at a rare premium to its peer group median and its own historical analyst targets. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is VLO stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for VLO is HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.