RRR (RRR) Stock Analysis
Verdict: HOLD
Las Vegas local gaming monopoly yields 18.2% FCF and low 8.25x EV/EBITDA, but 4.47x Net Debt/EBITDA leaves stock exposed to macro pullbacks.
Investment score: 59/100
Is RRR Stock Worth Reviewing? AI Model Thesis
The model score of 59/100 falls in the HOLD range. The central thesis and factor breakdown explain the assessment.
Peers
| Peer | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | ROIC % | Net margin % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKNG | -62.83 | 18.43 | 1.69 | 69.98 | — | -0.03 |
| WYNN | 18.42 | -48.86 | 1.13 | 9.81 | — | 0.06 |
| MGM | 19.08 | 3.22 | 0.45 | 17.74 | — | 0.02 |
| CZR | -12.98 | 1.79 | 0.52 | 9.13 | — | -0.04 |
| CHDN | 12.94 | 3.95 | 1.76 | 8.85 | — | 0.14 |
Should You Buy or Sell RRR Stock? Model Reasoning
The model score of 59/100 falls in the HOLD range. The central thesis and factor breakdown explain the assessment.
RRR Fair Value & Price Target — AI Valuation
- Model Assumptions: ["2026 consensus EPS reaches $2.71 on revenue of $2.02B.","EV/EBITDA multiple re-rates from 8.25x to 9.5x (closer to peer WYNN at 9.81x).","Net debt of $3.30B is successfully refinanced without breaching leverage covenants."]
RRR Risk & Opportunity Analysis
Key Investment Risks
- Elevated Financial Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA 4.47x) — If elevated interest rates persist or local Las Vegas gaming revenue decelerates in 2026-2027, high debt service obligations could compress net margins (currently 8.43%) and restrict cash allocation flexibility.
- Geographic & Consumer Discretionary Concentration — 100% revenue dependence on the Las Vegas local demographic exposes earnings directly to regional unemployment shocks or household savings depletion over the next 12 months.
- Recent Insider Selling Activity — Executives sold shares between $55.88 and $62.99 in August-September 2026 with zero open-market buys, indicating management caution near historic peak valuations.
- Substantial Capital Expenditure Requirements — CapEx demands for new casino builds ($320.6M in 2025, $701.6M in 2023) could reduce free cash flow if development timelines stall or cost overruns occur through 2027.
Growth Opportunities & Upside Drivers
- High FCF Yield & Cash Generation — RRR generated $288.9M in FCF for 2025, offering an 18.2% TTM FCF yield that significantly outpaces peers (MGM at 20.9%, WYNN at 9.5%, DKNG at 5.9%), funding debt reduction and shareholder returns by Q4 2026.
- Favorable Valuation Relative to Gaming Peers — Trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8.25x and P/E of 12.94x, RRR trades at a structural discount to regional and global peers (WYNN EV/EBITDA 9.81x, MGM 17.74x), offering a compelling margin of safety near its 52-week low ($47.78).
- Suburban Las Vegas Gaming Monopoly & Real Estate Moat — RRR controls premium off-strip suburban sites (including Durango Resort) with minimal regulatory licensing risk, generating superior operating margins of 27.7% vs MGM (5.7%) and CZR (17.5%).
- Proven Operational Execution & Beat Streak — RRR has beaten consensus EPS for 4 consecutive quarters (+15.5% in Q2 2026, +36.1% in Q3 2025), confirming strong cost control and operational stability in a choppy consumer environment.
RRR Action Plan — Entry, Exit and Stop Loss from the Model View
moderate
aggressive
conservative
Frequently Asked Questions About RRR (RRR)
Is RRR stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates RRR as HOLD with an investment score of 59/100. The model score of 59/100 falls in the HOLD range. The central thesis and factor breakdown explain the assessment. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Does RRR pay a dividend?
RRR shows a dividend yield of about 2.22% in the cached stock data. Investors should still verify the latest declared dividend and payout dates.
What does RRR stock do?
Red Rock Resorts operates regional casino and entertainment complexes primarily targeted at the Las Vegas locals market (19 properties: 9 large complexes, 10 smaller casinos) along with management fees from Native American gaming assets (Graton Resort in California).
What is RRR stock's price target?
This cached page does not contain a precise model fair value for RRR.
Is RRR stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for RRR is HOLD with an investment score of 59/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.
Is RRR a good dividend stock?
RRR may be relevant for dividend investors because the cached data shows a yield near 2.22%, but dividend quality also depends on payout safety, balance sheet strength and cash flow.