Progressive Corp (PGR) Stock Analysis
Verdict: HOLD
Underwriting excellence supports 35% ROE, but technical weakness near 52-week lows suggests a valuation mean-reversion is still in progress.
Investment score: 64/100
Analysis as of
Is Progressive Corp stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
Hold PGR for a potential reversal. Valuation is attractive at 10x earnings vs 32% growth, but technicals demand patience.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 55/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 85/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 70/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 45/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 75/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 80/100 (weight 15%)
Progressive Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for PGR
- Valuation Disconnect vs. Earnings Growth
What speaks against PGR
- Executive Transition Uncertainty (CFO)
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | 10.0x | 1.3x | 8.2x | 28.4% | 12.9% | 14.2% |
| TRV | 8.4x | 1.3x | 6.8x | 44.0% | 15.5% | 18.1% |
| ALL | 4.6x | 0.8x | 3.8x | 39.8% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| AIG | 12.9x | 1.5x | 6.2x | 38.5% | 11.9% | 8.7% |
| HIG | 9.1x | 1.3x | 7.2x | 47.0% | 14.1% | 15.9% |
| CINF | 9.3x | 2.0x | 6.9x | 50.3% | 21.3% | 13.5% |
| Peer median | 9.1x | 1.3x | 6.8x | 44.0% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
Frequently asked questions about Progressive Corp (PGR)
Is PGR stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Progressive Corp as HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. Hold PGR for a potential reversal. Valuation is attractive at 10x earnings vs 32% growth, but technicals demand patience. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is PGR stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for PGR is HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.