Paccar Inc (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Cyclical revenue contraction (-10.6%) and weak operating margin (9.8%) cap valuation upside despite solid $3.03B free cash flow.
Investment score: 47/100
Analysis as of
Is Paccar Inc stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
PACCAR faces cyclical freight headwinds that drove 2025 revenue down 10.56% and TTM operating margins to 9.8%. While FCF generation remains robust at $3.03B and balance sheet cash sits at $6.31B, execution miss history (3 of last 4 quarters) and insider selling favor waiting for clearer freight recovery.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 50/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 55/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 40/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 30/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 52/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 50/100 (weight 15%)
Paccar Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for PCAR
- Aftermarket Parts Segment Expansion
What speaks against PCAR
- Freight Recession and Extended Fleet Replacement Delays
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 24.9x | 2.3x | 20.1x | 14.9% | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| CAT | 34.2x | 4.9x | 23.4x | 33.9% | 14.5% | 2.4% |
| CMI | 26.7x | 2.1x | 15.6x | 25.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| WAB | 37.6x | 3.9x | 21.9x | 34.3% | 10.6% | 3.9% |
| ALSN | 18.8x | 2.7x | 12.4x | 39.5% | 14.3% | 7.4% |
| OSK | 16.5x | 0.8x | 9.2x | 15.9% | 5.2% | 12.8% |
| Peer median | 26.7x | 2.7x | 15.6x | 33.9% | 10.6% | 4.6% |
Frequently asked questions about Paccar Inc (PCAR)
Is PCAR stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Paccar Inc as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 47/100. PACCAR faces cyclical freight headwinds that drove 2025 revenue down 10.56% and TTM operating margins to 9.8%. While FCF generation remains robust at $3.03B and balance sheet cash sits at $6.31B, execution miss history (3 of last 4 quarters) and insider selling favor waiting for clearer freight recovery. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is PCAR stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for PCAR is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 47/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.