Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
Severe loan portfolio write-downs and Q2 earnings collapse trigger insolvency risk, making ARI a high-risk distressed turnaround play.
Investment score: 15/100
Analysis as of
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
The model assigns an AVOID rating as severe loan loss impairments and massive EPS misses render the 13.06% historical dividend yield unsafe and point to systemic portfolio distress.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 25/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 15/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 5/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 10/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 15/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 25/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 10/100 (weight 15%)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for ARI
- Portfolio Restructuring Potential
What speaks against ARI
- Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Loss Escalation
Peers and competitors
- FBRT
- BRSP
- ABR
- RWT
- KREF
- NREF
- REFI
- ACRE
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 2.9x | 1.1x | n/a | 7.7% | 50.6% | 14.6% |
| FBRT | n/a | 0.9x | 14.8x | 91.3% | 3.7% | 46.8% |
| BRSP | 26.3x | 1.3x | 18.8x | 49.2% | 5.7% | 16.5% |
| ABR | n/a | 0.3x | 16.5x | 91.4% | -5.6% | 83.8% |
| RWT | n/a | 0.3x | 40.6x | 25.5% | 0.4% | -3633.0% |
| KREF | n/a | 0.8x | 45.4x | 84.1% | -52.7% | 14.5% |
| Peer median | n/a | 0.8x | 18.8x | 84.1% | 0.4% | 16.5% |
Frequently asked questions about Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)
Is ARI stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 15/100. The model assigns an AVOID rating as severe loan loss impairments and massive EPS misses render the 13.06% historical dividend yield unsafe and point to systemic portfolio distress. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is ARI stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for ARI is AVOID with an investment score of 15/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.