Vistra Corp (VST) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
20-year hyperscaler PPAs and record PJM capacity prices back long-term cash flow, but $20.4B debt and hedge volatility limit short-term upside.
Investment score: 60/100
Analysis as of
Is Vistra Corp stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
Vistra offers strong multi-year cash flow visibility via hyperscaler PPAs and PJM capacity clearing, but high leverage and near-term technical consolidation favor waiting for a better risk-reward entry point.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 58/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 68/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 52/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 55/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 82/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 65/100 (weight 15%)
Vistra Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for VST
- Long-Term Hyperscaler Nuclear PPAs Lock In Premium Revenues
What speaks against VST
- Elevated Debt Load Creates Balance Sheet Vulnerability
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | 25.4x | 2.7x | 10.8x | 38.0% | 11.6% | 2.7% |
| TLN | n/a | 4.7x | 35.9x | 44.6% | -5.2% | 3.1% |
| AES | 5.7x | 0.8x | 10.3x | 20.3% | 14.6% | -16.1% |
| HNRG | 357.5x | 1.3x | 9.9x | -7.1% | -0.2% | -8.7% |
| FISN | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -23.1% |
| MTEI | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -607.7% |
| Peer median | n/a | 0.8x | 9.9x | 0.0% | 0.0% | -16.1% |
Frequently asked questions about Vistra Corp (VST)
Is VST stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Vistra Corp as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 60/100. Vistra offers strong multi-year cash flow visibility via hyperscaler PPAs and PJM capacity clearing, but high leverage and near-term technical consolidation favor waiting for a better risk-reward entry point. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is VST stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for VST is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 60/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.