US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Free cash flow expansion to $959M and tuck-in M&A support low-double-digit EPS growth, but 2.98x Net Debt/EBITDA leaves no margin for traffic deceleration.
Investment score: 56/100
Analysis as of
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
From the model's perspective, USFD is a high-quality broadline distributor experiencing short-term momentum weakness (-7.8% 30-day return). While structural cash generation ($959M FCF) and PRONTO digital adoption support long-term compound earnings, current valuation (28.01x TTM P/E vs Sysco's 21.53x) and leverage require a safer entry price near $82-$85.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 55/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 60/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 65/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 30/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 75/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 60/100 (weight 15%)
US Foods Holding Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for USFD
- Free Cash Flow Expansion to $959M
What speaks against USFD
- Macro Squeeze on Restaurant Traffic and Customer Solvency
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | 28.0x | 0.5x | 14.7x | 17.6% | 1.8% | 4.6% |
| SYY | 21.5x | 0.4x | 13.3x | 18.5% | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| PFGC | 39.7x | 0.2x | 12.9x | 11.9% | 0.5% | 7.2% |
| CHEF | 46.8x | 1.0x | 13.1x | 24.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| UNFI | 33.7x | 0.1x | 9.3x | 13.5% | 0.3% | 11.4% |
| ANDE | 13.9x | 0.2x | 8.8x | 7.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Peer median | 33.7x | 0.2x | 12.9x | 13.5% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
Frequently asked questions about US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)
Is USFD stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates US Foods Holding Corp as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 56/100. From the model's perspective, USFD is a high-quality broadline distributor experiencing short-term momentum weakness (-7.8% 30-day return). While structural cash generation ($959M FCF) and PRONTO digital adoption support long-term compound earnings, current valuation (28.01x TTM P/E vs Sysco's 21.53x) and leverage require a safer entry price near $82-$85. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is USFD stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for USFD is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 56/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.