Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
UPST's loan volume growth and bank charter optionality are offset by low 4.8% operating margins, -$134M FCF, and high debt sensitive to rates.
Investment score: 37/100
Analysis as of
Is Upstart Holdings Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
The AI model evaluates UPST as AVOID due to high relative valuation (P/E 38.3x vs peer median 13.5x), quarterly FCF burn of -$134.4M, D/E of 2.54, and high interest rate sensitivity (Beta 2.53).
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 30/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 40/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 20/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 40/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 70/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 30/100 (weight 15%)
Upstart Holdings Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for UPST
- High Underwriting AI Automation Rate
What speaks against UPST
- Negative Cash Flow Burn and Debt Overhang
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 38.3x | 1.8x | 44.1x | 95.4% | 4.7% | -13.0% |
| NNI | 14.9x | 2.4x | 21.6x | 82.7% | 16.3% | 8.1% |
| SLM | 6.5x | 1.4x | 5.7x | 54.9% | 24.0% | 14.6% |
| ENVA | 12.1x | 1.4x | 11.8x | 74.0% | 11.8% | 45.2% |
| DAVE | 19.6x | 6.8x | 15.0x | 83.3% | 34.6% | 7.5% |
| BFH | 7.9x | 0.9x | 5.1x | 64.0% | 11.9% | 52.5% |
| Peer median | 12.1x | 1.4x | 11.8x | 74.0% | 16.3% | 14.6% |
Frequently asked questions about Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)
Is UPST stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Upstart Holdings Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 37/100. The AI model evaluates UPST as AVOID due to high relative valuation (P/E 38.3x vs peer median 13.5x), quarterly FCF burn of -$134.4M, D/E of 2.54, and high interest rate sensitivity (Beta 2.53). This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is UPST stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for UPST is AVOID with an investment score of 37/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.