Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Resilient beer margins and an 8.0% FCF yield support valuation, but negative depletions and $11.2B in debt limit upside.
Investment score: 58/100
Analysis as of
Is Constellation Brands Inc stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
TradeMates assigns an investment score of 58/100 (WATCH). Constellation Brands generates strong cash flow backed by Modelo Especial's US market leadership, but persistent top-line weakness, elevated debt, and declining category depletions keep the risk/reward profile balanced.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 62/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 58/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 55/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 68/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 40/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 62/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 58/100 (weight 15%)
Constellation Brands Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for STZ
- High Free Cash Flow Generation and FCF Yield of 8.0%
What speaks against STZ
- Decelerating Beer Depletions and Sector Volume Headwinds
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZ | 12.2x | 2.5x | 10.3x | 52.7% | 20.9% | 8.0% |
| MGPI | n/a | 0.7x | n/a | 35.5% | -48.4% | 0.3% |
| CWGL | 119.9x | 1.2x | 10.2x | 44.7% | 1.0% | 11.1% |
| WVVI | n/a | 0.2x | 20.5x | 59.1% | -5.9% | 6.1% |
| RSAU | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.8% |
| Peer median | n/a | 0.5x | 3.7x | 40.1% | -3.0% | 3.2% |
Frequently asked questions about Constellation Brands Inc (STZ)
Is STZ stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Constellation Brands Inc as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 58/100. TradeMates assigns an investment score of 58/100 (WATCH). Constellation Brands generates strong cash flow backed by Modelo Especial's US market leadership, but persistent top-line weakness, elevated debt, and declining category depletions keep the risk/reward profile balanced. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is STZ stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for STZ is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 58/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.