Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) Stock Analysis
Verdict: HOLD
Deep value is emerging as a 14% FCF yield and heavy insider buying at $11-$12 create a floor against stagnant revenue growth.
Investment score: 64/100
Analysis as of
Is Simply Good Foods Co stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
SMPL is currently trading at a distressed valuation (0.71x P/B) despite strong FCF generation ($1.4B revenue base). Massive insider buying between $11.70-$12.40 suggests management sees a bottom. The model favors entry given the 45% upside to median analyst targets.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 80/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 40/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 50/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 90/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 75/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 60/100 (weight 15%)
Simply Good Foods Co opportunities and risks
What speaks for SMPL
- Significant Valuation Gap vs Peers
What speaks against SMPL
- Atkins Brand Structural Decline
Peers and competitors
- FLO
- JJSF
- UTZ
- SOY.TO
- AVO
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL | n/a | 0.7x | 9.2x | 32.8% | -7.5% | 14.2% |
| FLO | 22.0x | 0.3x | 10.4x | 48.0% | 1.4% | 19.1% |
| JJSF | 24.5x | 0.9x | 9.8x | 30.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| UTZ | n/a | 0.4x | 18.0x | 22.3% | -0.6% | 6.6% |
| AVO | 23.6x | 0.6x | 9.0x | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% |
| Peer median | 22.8x | 0.5x | 10.1x | 26.4% | 1.9% | 6.5% |
Frequently asked questions about Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)
Is SMPL stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Simply Good Foods Co as HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. SMPL is currently trading at a distressed valuation (0.71x P/B) despite strong FCF generation ($1.4B revenue base). Massive insider buying between $11.70-$12.40 suggests management sees a bottom. The model favors entry given the 45% upside to median analyst targets. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is SMPL stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for SMPL is HOLD with an investment score of 64/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.