Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
Phase 3 trial failure for Trappsol Cyclo destroys primary drug thesis, leaving RFL reliant on its $52.8M cash reserve and real estate.
Investment score: 26/100
Analysis as of
Is Rafael Holdings Inc stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
The model recommends AVOID on RFL following a 35.0% collapse driven by the Phase 3 trial failure of Trappsol Cyclo. While the cash position of $52.77M ($1.79/share) offers a temporary safety net relative to its $1.32 market price, ongoing operational cash burn makes holding this microcap biotech high-risk.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 35/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 45/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 10/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 20/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 40/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 20/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 15/100 (weight 15%)
Rafael Holdings Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for RFL
- Cash position of $52.77M ($1.79 per share) exceeds current share price of $1.32
What speaks against RFL
- Primary clinical catalyst failure invalidates rare-disease lead candidate pipeline
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFL | n/a | 69.0x | n/a | 84.4% | -3321.7% | -47.3% |
| NTRB | n/a | 56.5x | n/a | 33.1% | -430.4% | -4.0% |
| CGTX | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -20.6% |
| TELO | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.0% |
| VRCA | n/a | 2.7x | n/a | 85.9% | -102.8% | -16.2% |
| CING | n/a | 0.0x | 0.2x | 0.0% | 0.0% | -31.4% |
| Peer median | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -16.2% |
Frequently asked questions about Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL)
Is RFL stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Rafael Holdings Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 26/100. The model recommends AVOID on RFL following a 35.0% collapse driven by the Phase 3 trial failure of Trappsol Cyclo. While the cash position of $52.77M ($1.79/share) offers a temporary safety net relative to its $1.32 market price, ongoing operational cash burn makes holding this microcap biotech high-risk. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is RFL stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for RFL is AVOID with an investment score of 26/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.