Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
Cash burn of -$472M with under 11 months of runway and -$80M equity makes RARE a speculative binary play on upcoming FDA rulings.
Investment score: 27/100
Analysis as of
Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
Ultragenyx displays strong top-line growth (P/S 1.84x, revenue $673M), but faces a critical cash crunch with $434M cash vs -$472M annual FCF burn, $1.28B debt, and negative stockholders' equity. With 19 insider sells and technical breakdown, the model advises avoiding the stock until balance sheet recapitalization occurs.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 30/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 20/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 15/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 10/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 60/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 25/100 (weight 15%)
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for RARE
- Commercial revenue expansion across Crysvita and Dojolvi
What speaks against RARE
- Imminent liquidity shortfall and dilution risk
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RARE | n/a | 1.8x | n/a | 83.1% | -81.8% | -37.2% |
| TRAX | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| ABSI | n/a | 969.1x | n/a | -255.9% | -7756.4% | -7.2% |
| AVBP | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -11.2% |
| CGEM | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -12.2% |
| ORIC | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -8.4% |
| Peer median | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -8.4% |
Frequently asked questions about Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE)
Is RARE stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 27/100. Ultragenyx displays strong top-line growth (P/S 1.84x, revenue $673M), but faces a critical cash crunch with $434M cash vs -$472M annual FCF burn, $1.28B debt, and negative stockholders' equity. With 19 insider sells and technical breakdown, the model advises avoiding the stock until balance sheet recapitalization occurs. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is RARE stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for RARE is AVOID with an investment score of 27/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.