Pool Corp (POOL) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Cyclical weakness in new pool construction suppresses near-term earnings, but a 9.9% FCF yield and 64% recurring maintenance base protect downside near 52-week lows.
Investment score: 55/100
Analysis as of
Is Pool Corp stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
Pool Corp is weathering a severe cyclical slowdown in high-margin new pool builds and major remodeling, but its 64% recurring maintenance model and strong distribution network generate robust free cash flow ($309.5M in 2025; 9.9% FCF yield). Trading near its 52-week low of $165.37 at 15.5x P/E, the stock offers compelling long-term risk/reward, though weak technical momentum and earnings misses warrant waiting for operational stabilization before building full positions.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 62/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 58/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 32/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 40/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 78/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 58/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 65/100 (weight 15%)
Pool Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for POOL
- High recurring maintenance revenue anchors cash flows through housing downturns.
What speaks against POOL
- Prolonged macro freeze in US residential housing turnover and high-end remodeling.
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POOL | 15.5x | 1.1x | 12.9x | 29.6% | 7.4% | 9.9% |
| GPC | 489.8x | 0.7x | 32.1x | 36.2% | 0.1% | 4.3% |
| LKQ | 12.9x | 0.4x | 8.6x | 37.7% | 3.4% | 10.6% |
| GCT | 12.7x | 1.4x | 11.3x | 24.0% | 10.6% | 7.9% |
| GOLD | 14.4x | 0.1x | 3.5x | 1.8% | 0.3% | 99.8% |
| WEYS | 12.0x | 1.5x | 6.9x | 49.1% | 12.4% | 10.8% |
| Peer median | 12.9x | 0.7x | 8.6x | 36.2% | 3.4% | 10.6% |
Frequently asked questions about Pool Corp (POOL)
Is POOL stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Pool Corp as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 55/100. Pool Corp is weathering a severe cyclical slowdown in high-margin new pool builds and major remodeling, but its 64% recurring maintenance model and strong distribution network generate robust free cash flow ($309.5M in 2025; 9.9% FCF yield). Trading near its 52-week low of $165.37 at 15.5x P/E, the stock offers compelling long-term risk/reward, though weak technical momentum and earnings misses warrant waiting for operational stabilization before building full positions. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is POOL stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for POOL is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 55/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.