Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Aggressive insider buying at 0.74x book value battles a multi-quarter earnings miss streak and deteriorating NAV—the model weighs credit risk over yield.
Investment score: 44/100
Analysis as of
Is Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
NCDL is currently a falling knife with a high yield. Despite significant insider buying, the fundamental trend is negative.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 55/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 25/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 30/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 95/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 50/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 40/100 (weight 15%)
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for NCDL
- Deep Discount to NAV
What speaks against NCDL
- Credit Quality and Portfolio Deterioration
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | 10.7x | 4.0x | 22.7x | 60.8% | 37.6% | 20.2% |
| NMFC | n/a | 3.3x | 24.4x | 70.4% | -25.6% | 89.6% |
| SLRC | 8.0x | 3.9x | 17.4x | 64.0% | 49.2% | -12.8% |
| FDUS | 8.6x | 5.3x | 9.4x | 74.4% | 62.0% | -11.8% |
| GAIN | 3.3x | 5.8x | 9.1x | 57.9% | 173.6% | 4.1% |
| CCAP | 27.4x | 3.3x | 25.3x | 66.9% | 12.1% | 16.0% |
| Peer median | 8.0x | 3.9x | 17.4x | 66.9% | 49.2% | 4.1% |
Frequently asked questions about Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL)
Is NCDL stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 44/100. NCDL is currently a falling knife with a high yield. Despite significant insider buying, the fundamental trend is negative. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is NCDL stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for NCDL is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 44/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.