Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
MUSA is priced for perfection with 14 insider sells and a 20% premium to analyst targets; mean reversion toward $500 is technically overdue.
Investment score: 42/100
Analysis as of
Is Murphy USA Inc stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
The model identifies MUSA as significantly overvalued. Despite strong operational metrics and a high ROE, the stock is trading at the very edge of its 52-week range and 21% above the consensus target of $504.25. Aggressive insider liquidation and a multi-quarter revenue contraction (-1.2% CAGR) make the current entry price unjustifiable for new capital.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 30/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 55/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 40/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 60/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 10/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 25/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 50/100 (weight 15%)
Murphy USA Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for MUSA
- Fuel Margin Expansion per Gallon
What speaks against MUSA
- Insider and Analyst Valuation Divergence
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUSA | 20.5x | 0.6x | 12.2x | 5.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% |
| ORLY | 29.1x | 4.1x | 20.4x | 51.6% | 14.3% | 2.6% |
| CVNA | 30.1x | 3.3x | n/a | 20.0% | 7.1% | 1.0% |
| AZO | 20.7x | 2.5x | 14.8x | 51.8% | 12.4% | 2.3% |
| PAG | 12.7x | 0.4x | 13.1x | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| LAD | 10.0x | 0.2x | 7.7x | 15.2% | 1.9% | -3.5% |
| Peer median | 20.7x | 2.5x | 13.1x | 20.0% | 7.1% | 2.3% |
Frequently asked questions about Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
Is MUSA stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Murphy USA Inc as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 42/100. The model identifies MUSA as significantly overvalued. Despite strong operational metrics and a high ROE, the stock is trading at the very edge of its 52-week range and 21% above the consensus target of $504.25. Aggressive insider liquidation and a multi-quarter revenue contraction (-1.2% CAGR) make the current entry price unjustifiable for new capital. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is MUSA stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for MUSA is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 42/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.