Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Massive $4.06B WildFire acquisition and $1B equity dilution have broken technical support, creating a value trap until the dust settles.
Investment score: 44/100
Analysis as of
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
Avoid MGY for the next 90 days due to severe equity dilution and execution risk following a transformative $4.06B acquisition.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 48/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 72/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 25/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 60/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 30/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 55/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 40/100 (weight 15%)
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp opportunities and risks
What speaks for MGY
- Transformative Scale from WildFire Acquisition
What speaks against MGY
- Massive Short-term Equity Dilution
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | 14.2x | 3.5x | 5.5x | 46.5% | 24.4% | 8.0% |
| SM | 27.9x | 2.0x | 7.4x | 45.1% | 3.4% | -2.9% |
| CHRD | n/a | 1.4x | 5.4x | 16.1% | -1.3% | 6.7% |
| MTDR | 13.9x | 1.8x | 4.8x | 91.1% | 13.3% | 0.9% |
| MUR | 63.2x | 1.9x | n/a | 69.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| CNX | 3.9x | 2.0x | 3.2x | 50.5% | 50.9% | 11.9% |
| Peer median | 13.9x | 1.9x | 4.8x | 50.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
Frequently asked questions about Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)
Is MGY stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 44/100. Avoid MGY for the next 90 days due to severe equity dilution and execution risk following a transformative $4.06B acquisition. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is MGY stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for MGY is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 44/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.