Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
Surging $1.5B backlog and 659% Q2 revenue growth are overshadowed by $100M+ quarterly FCF burn and unrelenting secondary share dilution.
Investment score: 36/100
Analysis as of
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
The AI model evaluates Firefly Aerospace as an AVOID for short-to-medium term positions. High revenue growth (+117.1% TTM) and a $1.5B backlog are outweighed by severe cash burn (-$237.75M 2025 FCF), negative operating margins (-116.4% TTM), and brutal technical momentum (-52.9% in 90 days).
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 42/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 48/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 22/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 75/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 30/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 72/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 35/100 (weight 15%)
Firefly Aerospace Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for FLY
- Record $1.5 billion backlog anchored by multi-year government and defense contracts.
What speaks against FLY
- Severe free cash flow burn exceeding $200M annually without a clear timeline to operating profitability.
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLY | n/a | 9.9x | n/a | 19.3% | -126.6% | -11.5% |
| VSEC | 57.7x | 3.3x | 30.5x | 14.0% | 5.5% | -0.0% |
| BETA | n/a | 88.9x | n/a | 46.3% | -1913.9% | -10.6% |
| KRMN | 105.8x | 6.8x | 30.5x | 41.7% | 6.3% | -0.7% |
| AIR | 19.7x | 1.1x | 11.9x | 19.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| ACHR | n/a | 448.1x | n/a | -23.2% | -11589.9% | -21.3% |
| Peer median | 19.7x | 6.8x | 11.9x | 19.1% | 5.5% | -0.7% |
Frequently asked questions about Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY)
Is FLY stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Firefly Aerospace Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 36/100. The AI model evaluates Firefly Aerospace as an AVOID for short-to-medium term positions. High revenue growth (+117.1% TTM) and a $1.5B backlog are outweighed by severe cash burn (-$237.75M 2025 FCF), negative operating margins (-116.4% TTM), and brutal technical momentum (-52.9% in 90 days). This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is FLY stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for FLY is AVOID with an investment score of 36/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.