Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Chipotle's unit expansion drives revenue, but food safety risks and wage inflation compress margins, capping near-term upside.
Investment score: 54/100
Analysis as of
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
The AI model rates Chipotle as a HOLD. Exceptional ROE of 53.26% and 1.45B USD in annual free cash flow support the fundamental base, but valuation at 29.98x P/E vs peer median 18.5x and -4.17% earnings growth reflect near-term risk.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 42/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 68/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 48/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 60/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 40/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 65/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 58/100 (weight 15%)
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for CMG
- Domestic store expansion toward 7,000 units with 350-370 planned 2026 openings.
What speaks against CMG
- Food safety headline contagion following localized Salmonella and Cyclospora outbreaks.
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 30.0x | 3.4x | 20.7x | 24.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% |
| MCD | 19.2x | 6.1x | 14.7x | 57.4% | 31.7% | 4.6% |
| SBUX | 53.6x | 2.8x | 21.1x | 31.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| DASH | 98.8x | 5.3x | 44.1x | 51.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| YUM | 17.9x | 4.5x | 17.3x | 45.8% | 25.4% | 4.3% |
| QSR | 17.2x | 2.5x | 14.0x | 44.8% | 13.1% | 6.4% |
| Peer median | 19.2x | 4.5x | 17.3x | 45.8% | 13.1% | 4.3% |
Frequently asked questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Is CMG stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 54/100. The AI model rates Chipotle as a HOLD. Exceptional ROE of 53.26% and 1.45B USD in annual free cash flow support the fundamental base, but valuation at 29.98x P/E vs peer median 18.5x and -4.17% earnings growth reflect near-term risk. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is CMG stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for CMG is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 54/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.