Century Aluminum Co (CENX) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
A high-beta rebound play facing a 'credibility gap' due to four straight earnings misses and aggressive insider selling near 52-week highs.
Investment score: 58/100
Analysis as of
Is Century Aluminum Co stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
CENX offers exposure to aluminum price cycles but currently suffers from poor execution (earnings misses) and insider flight. The model suggests waiting for technical stabilization near the $40 level before entry.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 50/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 65/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 25/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 10/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 75/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 48/100 (weight 15%)
Century Aluminum Co opportunities and risks
What speaks for CENX
- Projected EPS Exponential Growth
What speaks against CENX
- Massive Insider and Institutional Selling
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 12.7x | 1.7x | 10.4x | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.6% |
| AA | 12.1x | 1.0x | 8.3x | 15.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% |
| KALU | 16.9x | 0.7x | 9.6x | 10.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| TG | 8.8x | 0.3x | 4.9x | 14.5% | 3.9% | 8.0% |
| BORK | n/a | 0.0x | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% | -705.8% |
| ORMTQ | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.0x | 8.6% | 20.6% | -2540996.8% |
| Peer median | 8.8x | 0.3x | 4.9x | 10.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
Frequently asked questions about Century Aluminum Co (CENX)
Is CENX stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Century Aluminum Co as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 58/100. CENX offers exposure to aluminum price cycles but currently suffers from poor execution (earnings misses) and insider flight. The model suggests waiting for technical stabilization near the $40 level before entry. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is CENX stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for CENX is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 58/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.