Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Stock Analysis
Verdict: HOLD
Deep discount to book value (0.6x) and high margins provide a floor, but a significant Q2 earnings miss and insider selling cap near-term upside.
Investment score: 62/100
Analysis as of
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd stock worth reviewing? The TradeMates thesis
AGO is a high-margin market leader trading at a steep 40% discount to book value. While recent earnings were disappointing, the structural capital return via buybacks remains intact.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 75/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 68/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 50/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 30/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 55/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 70/100 (weight 15%)
Assured Guaranty Ltd opportunities and risks
What speaks for AGO
- Deep Asset Value Discount
What speaks against AGO
- Concentrated Credit Exposure
Peers and competitors
- ACGL
- AXS
- HSX.L
- HG
- PLGO
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | 10.3x | 3.8x | 10.5x | 97.5% | 40.3% | 9.7% |
| ACGL | 7.6x | 1.8x | 6.7x | 46.2% | 24.4% | 21.0% |
| AXS | 6.5x | 1.1x | 5.6x | 44.5% | 18.0% | 30.5% |
| HSX.L | 12.6x | 1.4x | 8.8x | 69.2% | 11.4% | 9.2% |
| HG | 11.5x | 1.2x | 3.6x | 75.3% | 19.6% | 22.8% |
| PLGO | 6.6x | 1.0x | 4.0x | 39.0% | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| Peer median | 7.6x | 1.2x | 5.6x | 46.2% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
Frequently asked questions about Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
Is AGO stock a good investment?
The TradeMates model rates Assured Guaranty Ltd as HOLD with an investment score of 62/100. AGO is a high-margin market leader trading at a steep 40% discount to book value. While recent earnings were disappointing, the structural capital return via buybacks remains intact. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is AGO stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for AGO is HOLD with an investment score of 62/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.