Aaon Inc (AAON) Stock Analysis
Verdict: WATCH (do not buy)
Massive data center cooling demand drives record $2.0B backlog, but capacity startup drag and negative cash flow cap short-term upside.
Investment score: 47/100
Analysis as of
Is Aaon Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
AAON balances hyper-growth in its BasX data center cooling segment and a $2.0B backlog against margin compression (25.57% gross margin) and negative free cash flow caused by aggressive capacity expansion.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 35/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 50/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 30/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 70/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 35/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 75/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 45/100 (weight 15%)
Aaon Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for AAON
- BasX segment hyper-growth in AI data center cooling driving backlog to $2.0B
What speaks against AAON
- Margin compression and startup inefficiency drag at new facilities
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 40.7x | 3.3x | 21.7x | 25.6% | 8.2% | -1.8% |
| AOS | 16.1x | 2.1x | 11.6x | 38.6% | 13.1% | 8.0% |
| SSD | 19.0x | 3.0x | 11.9x | 45.8% | 15.6% | 6.5% |
| AWI | 22.4x | 4.1x | 12.6x | 40.3% | 18.6% | 3.7% |
| BLDR | 65.6x | 0.4x | 11.3x | 29.2% | 0.7% | 9.8% |
| CSW | 40.8x | 4.2x | 20.3x | 42.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% |
| Peer median | 22.4x | 3.0x | 11.9x | 40.3% | 13.1% | 6.5% |
Frequently asked questions about Aaon Inc (AAON)
Is AAON stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Aaon Inc as WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 47/100. AAON balances hyper-growth in its BasX data center cooling segment and a $2.0B backlog against margin compression (25.57% gross margin) and negative free cash flow caused by aggressive capacity expansion. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is AAON stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for AAON is WATCH (do not buy) with an investment score of 47/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.