Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) Stock Analysis
Verdict: AVOID
Surging 800G optical demand is countered by relentless ATM share dilution and deep negative free cash flow from aggressive Texas fab expansion.
Investment score: 34/100
Analysis as of
Is Applied Optoelectronics Inc stock worth reviewing? AI model thesis
The AI model perspective rates AAOI as AVOID due to severe shareholder dilution and heavy negative cash flows offsetting 800G transceiver revenue momentum.
7-factor investment score
- Valuation: 30/100 (weight 20%)
- Financial Health: 35/100 (weight 15%)
- Technical Momentum: 25/100 (weight 15%)
- Earnings Quality: 55/100 (weight 15%)
- Insider Sentiment: 10/100 (weight 10%)
- Analyst Consensus: 70/100 (weight 10%)
- Risk-Adjusted Return: 20/100 (weight 15%)
Applied Optoelectronics Inc opportunities and risks
What speaks for AAOI
- Rapid 800G and 1.6T Transceiver Production Capacity Expansion
What speaks against AAOI
- Relentless Share Dilution From At-The-Market (ATM) Equity Offerings
Peers and competitors
| Ticker | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | n/a | 11.9x | n/a | 28.9% | -9.6% | -5.8% |
| UI | 38.9x | 11.4x | 30.8x | 46.2% | 29.3% | 2.4% |
| FFIV | 36.0x | 7.8x | 26.0x | 82.2% | 22.0% | 3.8% |
| VIAV | n/a | 6.0x | 52.9x | 57.7% | -2.0% | 0.9% |
| VSAT | n/a | 1.8x | 7.6x | 30.4% | -0.6% | 6.8% |
| ONDS | 66.0x | 21.2x | 39.1x | 43.7% | 96.2% | -4.6% |
| Peer median | 36.0x | 7.8x | 30.8x | 46.2% | 22.0% | 2.4% |
Frequently asked questions about Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI)
Is AAOI stock a good investment?
The cached TradeMates AI model rates Applied Optoelectronics Inc as AVOID with an investment score of 34/100. The AI model perspective rates AAOI as AVOID due to severe shareholder dilution and heavy negative cash flows offsetting 800G transceiver revenue momentum. This is algorithmic model output, not personal investment advice.
Is AAOI stock a buy?
The TradeMates model verdict for AAOI is AVOID with an investment score of 34/100. Treat this as a model signal to review, not a personal buy recommendation.