SN: TradeMates Score 64/100 — why the model stays at HOLD

SN · 2026-10-30

TradeMates rates SharkNinja, Inc. (SN) at an Investment Score of 64 out of 100 today, with a HOLD verdict. The model sees a high-quality operator with consistent market share gains, but a price-to-earnings multiple of 40.07x (FMP, 2026) fully reflects near-term expectations. In the model's view, an entry only becomes attractive after a potential post-earnings pullback or a valuation reset.

Key Takeaways

• TradeMates assigns SN an Investment Score of 64/100 and a HOLD verdict; the valuation pillar drags on the total while quality and growth provide support.
• The model puts the P/E at 40.07x (FMP, 2026) — a premium that only holds up with sustained double-digit growth and a stable gross margin.
• SharkNinja most recently raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $5.24–5.28 billion (company disclosure, Q3 2025).
• Per the model, the stock trades near its 52-week high, which limits the margin of safety for new positions.
• The next verifiable catalyst is Q4 and full-year 2025 results, expected in February 2026 (analyst consensus, 2026).

What SharkNinja, Inc. does

SharkNinja designs and sells household and kitchen appliances under the Shark and Ninja brands — from cordless vacuums and air fryers to coffee and ice cream machines. The business is consumer-driven, margin-rich and built around a fast innovation cycle: a substantial share of revenue comes from products launched within the past three years (company disclosure, 10-K 2024). In Q3 2025, SharkNinja grew revenue by roughly 15% to $1.44 billion (10-Q Q3 2025), driven by double-digit gains across all four regions. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.35 (10-Q Q3 2025).

Why TradeMates is paying attention today

Operating performance and valuation are diverging. SharkNinja keeps taking share in a mature market: revenue rose 15% in Q3 2025 (10-Q Q3 2025), while the US small household appliance market grew only in the low single digits over the same period according to Circana estimates (Circana, 2025). That gap is the core of the model's thesis — it evidences pricing power and innovation strength.

At the same time, SN trades at 40.07x earnings (FMP, 2026). Against expected earnings growth in the high teens, that implies a PEG ratio well above 2.0 (model calculation based on FMP consensus, 2026). The model reads this as fully priced in: buyers today are already paying for the optimistic scenario over the next two years. The 64/100 score captures exactly that tension — strong fundamentals, weak valuation grade.

Opportunities from the model's perspective

• Share gains as the growth engine: SharkNinja grew double digits in all four regions in 2025 (10-Q Q3 2025). The model sees this as evidence the brands scale outside the US — a lever competitors with similar portfolios do not pull as consistently.
• Margin profile above the industry: Adjusted gross margin was 47.5% in Q3 2025 (10-Q Q3 2025). For a hardware business selling through retail and online channels, that is an above-average figure and explains why the model weights the quality pillar heavily.
• Raised full-year guidance: Revenue guidance for 2025 was lifted to $5.24–5.28 billion (company disclosure, Q3 2025). In the model, guidance raises count as a more durable quality signal than one-off margin spikes.

Risks from the model's perspective

• Valuation risk: At 40.07x earnings (FMP, 2026), a moderate miss in the holiday quarter is enough to hit the stock disproportionately. The model points to historical data showing consumer names above 35x P/E often corrected 15–25% after disappointing Q4 prints (FMP history, 2020–2025).
• Tariff and sourcing costs: A significant share of production sits in Asia. Tariffs hit gross margin directly; the company flags tariff costs as a material uncertainty in the 10-Q Q3 2025 (10-Q Q3 2025).
• Cyclical consumer demand: Small appliances are discretionary purchases. When consumer sentiment weakens, buyers defer replacement spending — a risk the model does not see adequately buffered in the current multiple.

What investors could check next

1. P/E relative to earnings growth: The model watches whether the P/E falls below 35x without a cut to the 2026 consensus (FMP, 2026). Only then does the score's valuation component improve materially.
2. Operating cash flow versus net income: A ratio persistently below 0.9 would point to working capital strain — relevant because SharkNinja builds inventory ahead of the holiday quarter (10-Q Q3 2025).
3. Q4 and full-year 2025 results: The date is expected in February 2026 (analyst consensus, 2026). The key items are 2026 guidance and gross margin under tariff pressure.
4. Retail inventory and sell-through: An inventory build beyond the seasonal pattern would be an early indicator of softening demand (10-Q Q3 2025).

FAQ

Why does TradeMates rate SN only 64 out of 100?

The model weights six pillars. Growth, financial quality and market position contribute strongly for SharkNinja, but the valuation pillar at 40.07x P/E (FMP, 2026) pulls the total down significantly. 64/100 signals a good company at an unattractive entry point.

What would need to happen for the model to move to BUY?

Two conditions: a price decline of roughly 15–20% with an unchanged earnings consensus, or an increase in expected earnings growth that pushes the PEG ratio below 1.5 (model calculation, 2026). Either would mathematically lift the score above the 70-point threshold.

Is the high multiple historically unusual for SharkNinja?

No. Since its 2023 IPO, SN has mostly traded between 25x and 45x earnings (FMP, 2023–2026). The model therefore treats the current multiple not as an anomaly but as a normal state with correspondingly low tolerance for error.

How dependent is SharkNinja on the US market?

The US remains the largest single market, but the international business grew faster than the US business in 2025 (10-Q Q3 2025). The model views the regional diversification as a structural advantage over competitors with higher US concentration.

What role do tariffs play in the model's rating?

Tariffs feed directly into the 47.5% gross margin (10-Q Q3 2025). The model has factored tariff costs into the quality pillar — one reason the score is not higher despite strong operating numbers.

This is a model analysis, not investment advice. Investments carry risk.